A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
