Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.

This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

This is a rather hard question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.